What Wins: Pattern Discovery

What Wins is a powerful pattern discovery tool that analyses historical performance to find profitable betting angles. It calculates the "Impact Value" (IV) for every participant + condition combination in a race, helping you identify edges that have historically outperformed expectations.

Accessing What Wins

• Open any racecard and switch to the Form Expert view
• Click the What Wins button in the control bar
• Available for Basic tier and above

Understanding Impact Value (IV)

IV measures how much a participant outperforms random chance when specific conditions are met. It's calculated as:

IV Score	Interpretation
1.0x	Average - wins at exactly the expected rate
1.5x	Good - wins 50% more often than expected
2.0x	Strong - wins twice as often as expected
3.0x+	Exceptional - significant historical edge

Filter Conditions

What Wins analyses 11 different filter combinations for each participant type:

Filter	Description
Going	Same going as today's race
Class	Same class level (1-7)
Course	At this course specifically
Distance	Similar trip range
Field Size	Similar number of runners
Going + Class	Both conditions combined
Going + Distance	Going and trip range
Class + Distance	Class and trip range
Course + Distance	C&D combination
Going + Class + Distance	Three-way combination
All Conditions	All five filters combined

Participant Type Pills

Toggle which participant types to show using the filter pills at the top:

Pill	Participant Type
HOR	Horse - the horse's own historical record
TRN	Trainer - the trainer's record with all horses
JKY	Jockey - the jockey's record with all mounts
SIRE	Sire - the sire's progeny record
DAM	Dam - the dam's offspring record
DS	Damsire - the maternal grandsire's record
OWN	Owner - the owner's record with all horses

Minimum Runs Filter

Use the "Min" dropdown to set a minimum sample size. Higher thresholds give more reliable results but may hide emerging patterns. Options:

• Off - Show all results (may include small samples)
• 5 - At least 5 runs (recommended starting point)
• 10 - At least 10 runs (good balance)
• 20 - At least 20 runs (high confidence)
• 50 - At least 50 runs (very high confidence)

Reading the Results

Results are grouped by horse and sorted by best IV. Each row shows:

• Type Badge - Which participant type (HOR/TRN/JKY etc.)
• Filter - Which condition combination was applied
• Participant Name - The specific horse/trainer/jockey etc.
• IV Score - The impact value (e.g., 2.50x)
• Sample - Runs and wins (e.g., 15R/6W)

Using Results Effectively

• Look for high IV (2.0x+) with decent sample size (10+ runs)
• Multiple strong patterns on one horse suggests real edge
• Be cautious of very high IV with tiny samples (e.g., 8.00x from 2R/2W)
• Course + Distance patterns often most predictive
• Trainer patterns reveal stable strengths/conditions

Apply Pattern to Form Expert

Click on any pattern row to instantly apply those filters in Form Expert:

• Click any row - The modal closes and Form Expert loads with matching filters
• Participant type - Automatically switches to Horse/Trainer/Jockey etc.
• Filters applied - Going, Class, Course, Distance, Field Size set to match the pattern
• Quick comparison - See how all runners in the race perform under those same conditions

This lets you validate a promising pattern by viewing the full Form Expert breakdown for all runners, making it easy to spot if the pattern horse truly stands out.

Pin & Close

Click "Pin & Close" to keep the What Wins results visible while browsing the racecard. The pinned results stay as you navigate between races. Click "Close" to dismiss.