Handicap Analysis

Who can use it: Enterprise and above.

Handicap Analysis is a dedicated tab on every handicap racecard that surfaces three signals: Speed-Form vs class par, Mark Edge vs last winning OR, and a race-level Hot/Soft Index. All history is scoped to today's race-type only — Turf Flat, All-Weather, Chase and Hurdle are kept separate.

Race header — Hot/Soft Index

A 0–10 dial at the top of the tab summarises how competitive the handicap is, with three single-scale components feeding the score:

Label	Score	Meaning
SOFT	0 – 3.9	Open at the bottom — top weights look vulnerable; well-handicapped runners lower in the weights have a real chance
WARM	4 – 6.9	Balanced — neither obviously open nor a tight competitive race
HOT	7 – 10	Competitive, tight, hard-to-call — runners bunched in OR and many in strong recent form

The score is built from four components:

• OR spread (max OR – min OR in today's field) — wider = lower score (more spread = softer at the bottom)
• % within 2 lb of career-high OR — high % = higher score (exposed top end means real competition)
• % with SF STRONG (≥+4) — high % = higher score (lots of horses running fast = real class)
• # of long-handicap runners — high count = lower score (mark relief from below the band)

Race Insights (auto-commentary)

Right below the dial, an Insights panel surfaces 3–6 plain-English bullets — temperature explanation, combined stand-outs, career-low runners, the best speed-form runner, long-handicap callouts, and a "limited form" alert when the field has thin recent data.

Per-runner chips

Each runner row in the Handicap table has two adjacent chips:

SF — Speed-Form (two variants)

The runner row shows two Speed-Form columns side by side. Both use today's class par as the benchmark, both are scoped to the horse's runs at today's discipline only (Turf Flat / All-Weather / Chase / Hurdle), and both use the same tier thresholds — but they answer different questions.

SF (frame) — the original signal. Average speed figure of the horse's last 3 in-frame runs (positions 1st–4th) at today's discipline, minus today's class par. Filters out off-days and non-finishes, so it measures peak ability when the horse is firing. Best for spotting a horse with hidden class.

SF (all) — the recent-form signal. Average speed figure of the horse's last 3 runs at today's discipline regardless of finish position, minus today's class par. Includes bad runs, falls and pulled-ups, so it measures current general form. Useful for spotting horses that have gone off the boil even if their peak is high.

Read them together: when SF (frame) is high but SF (all) is low, the horse can run to class but isn't right now — be wary. When both are high, the horse is firing on all cylinders. When SF (all) is higher than SF (frame), the horse has had several finishes outside the frame recently — be sceptical of the "frame" version.

Tier	Range	Meaning
STRONG	≥ +4	Recent times well above class par — in form
FAIR	−3 to +3	Roughly running to class par
WEAK	≤ −4	Recent times well below class par — out of form

Note: the combined gold-dot stand-out tag (●) uses SF (frame) STRONG + ME SOFT. The (frame) variant is the higher-quality signal for "is this horse genuinely class enough" so we use it for the stand-out flag.

ME — Mark Edge

Today's Official Rating minus the mark the horse was rated off when it last won a handicap at this discipline. Wins in novice, maiden or conditions races don't count — they're not run under handicap conditions, so the OR the horse was carried at isn't a validated winning handicap mark. Negative = racing off a lower mark than when it last won a handicap.

Tier	Range	Meaning
SOFT	≤ −3	Racing off a more attractive mark than its last win
LEVEL	−2 to +2	Similar mark to its last win
HIGHER	≥ +3	Racing off a stiffer mark than when it last won

★ Career-low star

Shown when today's OR equals or is below the horse's career-min OR at this discipline, and the horse has previously won a handicap at this discipline. Often a strong signal that the handicapper has given the horse a "way back in" — but only meaningful when there's a real winning mark to compare against, which is why never-won horses don't get a star.

● Combined stand-out (gold dot)

Surfaces only when SF = STRONG and ME = SOFT on the same runner. This is the headline pick: running fast lately AND racing off a soft mark.

OR sparkline — click to expand

Every row has a small inline sparkline of the horse's OR over its last 10 runs at today's discipline. Dot colours mirror inline form: green = win, blue = placed (2nd–4th), grey = other. Click any sparkline to open a larger bar chart with hover detail and pattern matching against today's conditions.

Pattern matching against today's conditions

The expanded chart compares each past run against today on five conditions: Going (within 1 firmness step), Distance (within 1 furlong), Class (within 1), Course (exact) and Field size (same band: small ≤8, medium 9–15, large 16+). Each bar gets a 0–5 match score. Bars matching ≥3/5 conditions show at full opacity with thicker borders; lower-match bars are faded so the relevant runs stand out visually.

A summary line above the chart tells you "X of N past runs match today on ≥3/5 conditions — Y wins, Z placed". Hover any bar for a 4-line tooltip with the full conditions and per-condition tick line. Click a bar to open that race in a new tab.

Draw & Pace context

The race header also pulls in the headline course-DNA + pace forecast from the Draw & Pace analysis so you don't have to switch tabs to see whether front-runners or hold-up horses are favoured today.

Worked example — Curragh 1m 6f Class 3 handicap (Good)

Tab availability

• Handicap races only — the tab is greyed out for non-handicap races (Group races, novice events, conditions races, etc.)
• Enterprise tier — admins always have access; lower tiers see the tab and an upgrade modal when they click
• All history scoped to today's discipline (Turf Flat / A-W / Chase / Hurdle)