RaceMetricsMeasuring what matters

Going Predictor

Updated 29 October 2026

Who can use it: RaceMetrics Pro and Proform Premium members.

What is the Going Predictor?

The Going Predictor is a live race time calibrator. After race 1 at a meeting, enter the winning time and instantly see which going condition the ground is actually riding as at that course and distance. The official going description doesn't always reflect reality — the Going Predictor gives you a data-driven verdict based on historical GA (Going Allowance) data.

How It Works

The Going Predictor uses Proform standard times and class normalisation to predict the going from a single race time. This is the same methodology used to create Proform Speed Figures.

  1. Select course and distance — the tool loads all historical race times and looks up the standard time (the expected winning time on Good ground)
  2. Choose race type — Turf, AW, Chase, Hurdle, or NHF. These are never mixed because each runs on different ground or a different part of the course
  3. Select race class — Class A through H. This is critical for accuracy as it normalises for horse ability (Class A races are run faster than Class G regardless of going)
  4. Enter the winning time in seconds (e.g., 84.19) or minutes:seconds format (e.g., 1:24.19) — both inputs sync automatically
  5. Optionally enter rail movement — in yards, positive or negative. Rail movements can add or remove distance from a race, sometimes up to nearly a furlong
  6. Get the verdict — the tool calculates DiffPerMile (how much slower than standard), applies the class normalisation, and maps the result to a going description

The Calculation

The prediction follows the Proform speed figure methodology:

  1. Standard Time Adjustment: If rail movement is entered, the standard time is proportionally adjusted: adjStdTime = (stdTime / miles) × (miles + railYards/1760)
  2. Diff per Mile: (enteredTime - standardTime) / miles — how many seconds per mile slower than standard
  3. Class Normalisation: Each class has a seconds-per-mile value (A=3.6, B=4.8, C=5.5-5.9, etc.) representing the expected speed relative to standard. Higher classes run closer to standard time
  4. Predicted GA: ClassCalc - DiffPerMile — the going allowance after removing the class effect

Accuracy Notes

  • This is a single-race estimate. Proform's actual GA uses the top 3 fastest races from a meeting for greater accuracy
  • A confidence range of ±2 GA is shown to reflect the inherent uncertainty
  • Slowly-run tactical races will read softer than reality — check race pace if available
  • Class A and B races produce more reliable predictions than lower classes due to narrower ability ranges
  • Without a class selected, the prediction omits the class normalisation and is less accurate

Race Type Isolation

Different race types run on different surfaces or different parts of the course, so times are never mixed:

  • Turf (Flat) — turf flat races only. Goings: Hard through Heavy
  • AW (All-Weather) — different surface entirely. Goings: Standard, Slow, Fast
  • Chase — run on a separate part of the course from hurdle races
  • Hurdle — hurdle races only
  • NHF — National Hunt Flat races (run on the hurdle course with hurdles removed)

GA-to-Going Mapping

The verdict uses the Proform Going Allowance (GA) scale with granular descriptions beyond the standard BHA categories:

Turf / Jumps:

  • Firm: GA +3.0 or higher
  • Good to Firm: +2.01 to +2.99
  • Good: -0.99 to +2.00
  • Good to Soft: -1.0 to -3.49
  • Soft: -3.5 to -4.99
  • Very Soft: -5.0 to -6.49
  • Heavy: -6.5 to -7.99
  • Very Heavy: -8.0 to -9.49
  • Extremely Heavy: -9.5 to -11.99
  • Bottomless: -12.0 to -14.99
  • Extremely Bottomless: -15.0 or worse

All-Weather: Fast (+3.0+) → Standard (0 to +2.99) → Slow (below 0)

Going Summary Cards

Colour-coded cards show each going condition found at the selected course and distance. Each card displays:

  • Races: Number of historical races at this going
  • Median: Median race time (more robust than average against outliers)
  • Avg: Average race time
  • Range: Fastest to slowest time
  • Avg GA: Average Going Allowance (green = positive/fast, red = negative/slow)

Going data is grouped by actual going (post-race assessment) where available, falling back to official going when actual going is not recorded.

Rail Movement

Rail movements can add or remove distance from a race — sometimes up to nearly a furlong. Enter the movement in yards (positive = longer, negative = shorter) and the standard time is proportionally adjusted before the GA calculation runs. This is the same adjustment used when creating Proform Speed Figures.

Time Equalisation

At some courses, race distances vary by a few yards between meetings (e.g., Clonmel may have races at 2m 51y, 2m 76y, and 2m 95y all within the same distance band). The Going Predictor automatically equalises times to the most common distance:

  • Times are proportionally adjusted: adjustedTime = rawTime × (targetDistance / actualDistance)
  • Adjusted times are marked with an orange * in the table — hover to see the original time and actual distance
  • The table header shows which distance times have been equalised to
  • All analysis (verdict, scatter plot, going cards) uses the equalised times for accuracy

Date-Anchored Analysis

When accessed from a past race, the Going Predictor only shows historical times from before that race date. This means you see the same data that was available at the time, not results from after the race.

3D Scatter Plot

The interactive 3D scatter shows every historical race as a point:

  • X axis: Going condition (categorical, ordered firm to soft)
  • Y axis: Race time in seconds (equalised if applicable)
  • Z axis: Going Allowance (GA)
  • Point colour: By going condition
  • Point size: Proportional to field size
  • Gold diamond marker: Your entered time, positioned at the predicted going
  • Hover any point to see date, winner, time, going, class, field size, and speed rating

Historical Races Table

A fully sortable table showing every race in the dataset with columns for date, winner, time (seconds and m:ss), official going, actual going, distance, class, field size, GA (colour-coded: green positive, red negative), GA Going (the granular going description derived from the GA value for that individual race), and speed rating.

When you enter a time, a gold "YOUR TIME" row is pinned at the top of the table showing the predicted going and GA for your entered time.

GA Column Colouring

GA values are colour-coded throughout: green for positive (faster than standard) and red for negative (slower than standard). This applies to the table, going cards, and verdict panel.

Confidence Levels

  • High: 50+ races in the dataset and entered time is within 1 standard deviation of the nearest going cluster
  • Medium: 20–49 races or within 1.5 standard deviations
  • Low: Fewer than 20 races or beyond 1.5 standard deviations

Access

  • Racecards menu: Choose Going Predictor from the Racecards menu in the navigation bar
  • Racecard: Going Predictor button in the race info strip (pre-populates course, distance, race type, and official going)
  • Race Results: Going Predictor button next to Meeting Pace