Who can use it: RaceMetrics Pro and Proform Premium members with the Sectionals Add-On.
The Hard-Luck Finder is a screener for beaten horses the sectional data says should have won — before they line up again. Find it under Racecards → Hard-Luck Finder in the navigation, or go straight to hard-luck.html.
The two angles
- Hard-luck stories — TPD sectional timing works out how many pounds each horse left behind by running one section of its race inefficiently (checked, forced wide, or burned up in a speed duel). When correcting that one section would move a beaten horse to first place — with the whole field corrected the same way, so it’s a genuinely high bar — that run is flagged as a hard-luck story. Historically these horses win about 19% of the time next start against an ~11% baseline, finish in the first three around half the time, and show a small but genuine edge at Betfair SP — roughly +3–4% ROI net of commission over 7,000+ bets (modest on its own, better paired with a class drop or price filter).
- Full of running — the run-out speed angle: a beaten horse that posted a top-2 run-out speed (how fast it was still travelling two seconds after the line) and finished faster than par was never fully let down. These win 16.4% next time against a 10% baseline. This is the same signal behind the emerald FoR LTO racecard badge — the Finder gives it a list view.
How flags work
- Flags are computed automatically each evening as sectional data arrives (TPD data can land a couple of days after the race, so a fresh run may take a day or two to appear).
- A flag stays active until the horse runs again — the whole point is to catch it before its next start. Once it runs, the flag expires whatever the result.
- Each row shows the flagged run (course, date, finishing position, what the data says — e.g. “Corrected, wins by 2.5L”), how long ago it was, and the horse’s next declared engagement if it has one. Rows with an upcoming entry are highlighted and sorted first.
Where else it shows up
- Racecard badges: a rose Unlucky LTO badge next to any runner whose last run was a hard-luck story, alongside the emerald FoR LTO badge for full-of-running horses. Hover either badge for the numbers.
- Notifications: on mornings when flagged horses are declared to run, you’ll get an alert listing them (with the standard sectionals notification preference controlling it).
Access: the Hard-Luck Finder, the racecard badges and the declared-runner alerts need a Proform Premium subscription with the Sectionals Add On (they are built on TPD sectional data). Everyone can see the page and what it does; the data itself is gated. As with all sectional features, there is no Irish coverage.