Chepstow (Friday 9 to Sunday 11 October): this weekend's big jumps meeting. For each we went through every jumps runner at the course in the same month since 2018 and asked one question: did they win more often than their Betfair price said they would? That is A/E: actual winners divided by the winners the Betfair prices expected, where 1.00 means the market had them exactly right. Then we followed them on to the two festivals that matter, the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February and the Cheltenham Festival in March.
The short version
- Chepstow: the split furthest from its price is 4-year-olds in non-handicap hurdles, 3 winners from 114, A/E 0.43.
- 7.3% of the horses who ran there went on to a festival the same season; 9 of them won there. The latest: Wilful, 3rd at Chepstow in 2025, then won the County Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 2026.
- 3 horses join the 2026-27 festival dossier from last weekend at Gowran Park; 3 so far.
Chepstow, Friday 9 to Sunday 11 October
8 Octobers, 185 races, 1,774 runners. Horses back from a summer break (181+ days) have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and beat the price (A/E 1.12): 83 winners from 646 runners (12.8%), A/E 1.12, minus £55 at Betfair SP, in profit in 2 of 8 Octobers. The split furthest from its price is 4-year-olds in non-handicap hurdles: 3 from 114, A/E 0.43. Most winners: Paul Nicholls among the trainers (32 from 112, A/E 1.08) and Harry Cobden among the riders (30 from 112, A/E 1.02).
The road to the festivals
Of every horse that ran at Chepstow in this month since 2018, 7.3% ran at the Dublin Racing Festival or the Cheltenham Festival later that season (Dublin 0, Cheltenham 129). They won 9 festival races, an A/E of 1.56 at Betfair SP. Each horse counts once a season, by its last run here before the festivals.
- Wilful: 3rd in the DragonBet 'Welsh Champion' Hurdle (Limited Handicap) at Chepstow (2025), then won the William Hill County Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 18.07).
- Ask Brewster: 1st in the DragonBet / Native River Handicap Chase at Chepstow (2025), then won the Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 22.00).
- The New Lion: 1st in the ColourFence Newport Long Life Garden Railings Maiden Hurdle at Chepstow (2024), then won the Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival (2025) (Betfair SP 4.86).
- Haiti Couleurs: 2nd in the Carl Pyne 60th Birthday Novices' Limited Handicap Chase at Chepstow (2024), then won the Princess Royal National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2025) (Betfair SP 5.00).
- Chianti Classico: 1st in the Tom Malone Bloodstock Novices' Limited Handicap Chase at Chepstow (2023), then won the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 9.00).
- Unexpected Party: 1st in the Happy Birthday Sue Novices' Chase (Listed) at Chepstow (2023), then won the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 15.89).
- Imperial Aura: 3rd in the Cotswold Stone Supplies Ltd Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) at Chepstow (2019), then won the Northern Trust Company Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed) at the Cheltenham Festival (2020) (Betfair SP 5.55).
- Indefatigable: 5th in the Cotswold Stone Supplies Ltd Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) at Chepstow (2019), then won the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (2020) (Betfair SP 39.67).
- Lisnagar Oscar: 2nd in the Dunraven Windows Novices' Chase at Chepstow (2019), then won the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival (2020) (Betfair SP 120.00).
The 2026-27 festival dossier
Not every race leads to the festivals. The dossier takes only the feeder races: the British and Irish jumps races whose past runnings sent 30% or more of their runners on to the Dublin Racing Festival or Cheltenham that season. Handicaps and maidens almost never do, so they stay out. Every Monday the first three in each of last weekend's feeder races go in. In February and March we check which of them made Dublin and Cheltenham, and how they ran there. This week: 3 horses from Gowran Park, 3 in all.
- Fleur In The Park (Andrew Slattery): 1st of 4, PWC Danoli Chase (Grade 2), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 2.37) (feeder race: 44% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 31%, Dublin 24%))
- Blood Destiny (W P Mullins): 2nd of 4, PWC Danoli Chase (Grade 2), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 2.42) (feeder race: 44% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 31%, Dublin 24%))
- Emily Love (Gordon Elliott): 3rd of 4, PWC Danoli Chase (Grade 2), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 48.00) (feeder race: 44% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 31%, Dublin 24%))
Build it yourself
Every table here is a breakdown in the System Builder: add Course, Month and Race Type, open the Breakdowns tab, and read A/E at Betfair SP beside the strike rate. On the day, Hot & Cold Trainers and Market Movers cover every yard and price at the meeting.
How we measured it
Every runner in a chase, hurdle or bumper at each course in the meeting's month, 2018 to last season, non-runners left out. A/E compares the winners with the sum of the horses' chances at Betfair Starting Price. Profit and loss is a £1 level stake at Betfair SP with 2% commission taken from winnings. "In profit" counts the years in which that split made a profit. The Dublin Racing Festival is every Leopardstown jumps fixture in February and the Cheltenham Festival every Cheltenham jumps fixture in March; a run counts towards the festivals of the same season. A split above par is a question to ask, not a bet to strike.
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