Weekend jumps, 14 November: Cheltenham and Navan, what the price knew and the road to the festivals

Cheltenham (Friday 13 to Sunday 15 November) and Navan (Saturday 14 to Sunday 15 November): this weekend's big jumps meetings. For each we went through every jumps runner at the course in the same month since 2018 and asked one question: did they win more often than their Betfair price said they would? That is A/E: actual winners divided by the winners the Betfair prices expected, where 1.00 means the market had them exactly right. Then we followed them on to the two festivals that matter, the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February and the Cheltenham Festival in March.

Cheltenham, Friday 13 to Sunday 15 November

8 Novembers, 148 races, 1,515 runners. Horses off for 22-60 days have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and beat the price (A/E 1.11): 70 winners from 629 runners (11.1%), A/E 1.11, minus £6 at Betfair SP, in profit in 4 of 8 Novembers. The split furthest from its price is horses off for 61-180 days: 1 from 77, A/E 0.20. Most winners: Dan Skelton among the trainers (15 from 84, A/E 1.16) and Harry Skelton among the riders (14 from 66, A/E 1.16).

Navan, Saturday 14 to Sunday 15 November

8 Novembers, 124 races, 1,549 runners. Horses back from a summer break (181+ days) have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and the price knew it (A/E 1.06): 42 winners from 342 runners (12.3%), A/E 1.06, minus £29 at Betfair SP, in profit in 1 of 8 Novembers. The split furthest from its price is top weights in handicaps: 4 from 45, A/E 1.57. Most winners: Gordon Elliott among the trainers (41 from 291, A/E 0.96) and Jack Kennedy among the riders (18 from 64, A/E 0.99).

The road to the festivals

Of every horse that ran at these meetings in this month since 2018, 20.2% ran at the Dublin Racing Festival or the Cheltenham Festival later that season (Dublin 174, Cheltenham 498). They won 41 festival races, an A/E of 0.89 at Betfair SP. Each horse counts once a season, by its last run here before the festivals.

• Dinoblue: 2nd in the Bar One Racing Fortria Chase (Grade 2) at Navan (2025), then won the Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase (Grade 2) at the Cheltenham Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 2.43).
• Supremely West: 5th in the From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (2025), then won the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 5.25).
• Holloway Queen: did not finish in the Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (2025), then won the National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 18.10).
• Backtonormal: 5th in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase at Navan (2024), then won the O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade 3) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2025) (Betfair SP 4.09).
• Solness: 2nd in the Bar One Racing Fortria Chase (Grade 2) at Navan (2024), then won the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2025) (Betfair SP 8.66).
• Bob Olinger: 2nd in the Railway Bar Lismullen Hurdle (Grade 2) at Navan (2024), then won the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival (2025) (Betfair SP 8.88).
• Perceval Legallois: 4th in the Bar One Racing Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade 3) at Navan (2024), then won the Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (0-150) (Listed) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2025) (Betfair SP 13.63).
• Fact To File: 2nd in the Race And Stay Irish EBF Beginners Chase at Navan (2023), then won the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 1.72).
• Fact To File: 2nd in the Race And Stay Irish EBF Beginners Chase at Navan (2023), then won the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Grade 1) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 2.61).
• Limerick Lace: 2nd in the Bar One Racing Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade 3) at Navan (2023), then won the Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase (Grade 2) at the Cheltenham Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 4.50).

The 2026-27 festival dossier

Not every race leads to the festivals. The dossier takes only the feeder races: the British and Irish jumps races whose past runnings sent 30% or more of their runners on to the Dublin Racing Festival or Cheltenham that season. Handicaps and maidens almost never do, so they stay out. Every Monday the first three in each of last weekend's feeder races go in. In February and March we check which of them made Dublin and Cheltenham, and how they ran there. This week: 17 horses from Warwick, Wexford, Clonmel, Aintree and Naas, 68 in all.

• Un Sens A La Vie (Nigel Twiston-Davies): 1st of 2, Stan Mellor Memorial 'Chasing Excellence' Beginners' Chase, Warwick 03/11 (Betfair SP 1.47) (feeder race: 35% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 35%, Dublin 0%))
• Loriko (Dan Skelton): 2nd of 2, Stan Mellor Memorial 'Chasing Excellence' Beginners' Chase, Warwick 03/11 (Betfair SP 3.28) (feeder race: 35% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 35%, Dublin 0%))
• The Big Westerner (Henry De Bromhead): 1st of 4, Michael Hickey Memorial Chase (Listed), Wexford 04/11 (Betfair SP 1.36) (feeder race: 32% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 25%, Dublin 11%))
• Bossofthebrownies (M F Morris): 2nd of 4, Michael Hickey Memorial Chase (Listed), Wexford 04/11 (Betfair SP 5.60) (feeder race: 32% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 25%, Dublin 11%))
• Sandor Clegane (Paul Nolan): 3rd of 4, Michael Hickey Memorial Chase (Listed), Wexford 04/11 (Betfair SP 13.00) (feeder race: 32% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 25%, Dublin 11%))
• A Snow White Park (Margaret Mullins): 1st of 4, T.A. Morris Memorial Irish EBF Mares Chase (Listed), Clonmel 05/11 (Betfair SP 1.92) (feeder race: 35% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 29%, Dublin 8%))
• Bynx (Martin Hassett): 2nd of 4, T.A. Morris Memorial Irish EBF Mares Chase (Listed), Clonmel 05/11 (Betfair SP 20.00) (feeder race: 35% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 29%, Dublin 8%))
• Jolie Jewel (Brian M McMahon): 3rd of 4, T.A. Morris Memorial Irish EBF Mares Chase (Listed), Clonmel 05/11 (Betfair SP 2.54) (feeder race: 35% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 29%, Dublin 8%))
• Kappa Jy Pyke (W P Mullins): 1st of 3, Clonmel Oil Chase (Grade 2), Clonmel 05/11 (Betfair SP 1.26) (feeder race: 42% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 31%, Dublin 19%))
• Herja (P Griffin): 2nd of 3, Clonmel Oil Chase (Grade 2), Clonmel 05/11 (Betfair SP 18.50) (feeder race: 42% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 31%, Dublin 19%))
• Blaze The Way (Margaret Mullins): 3rd of 3, Clonmel Oil Chase (Grade 2), Clonmel 05/11 (Betfair SP 7.01) (feeder race: 42% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 31%, Dublin 19%))
• Rubaud (Paul Nicholls): 1st of 6, BetMGM Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 2) (Limited Handicap), Aintree 06/11 (Betfair SP 5.46) (feeder race: 41% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 37%, Dublin 4%))
• Jpr One (Joe Tizzard): 2nd of 6, BetMGM Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 2) (Limited Handicap), Aintree 06/11 (Betfair SP 4.30) (feeder race: 41% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 37%, Dublin 4%))
• Mirabad (Dan Skelton): 3rd of 6, BetMGM Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 2) (Limited Handicap), Aintree 06/11 (Betfair SP 3.40) (feeder race: 41% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 37%, Dublin 4%))
• Irish Panther (Edward P Harty): 1st of 4, Barberstown Castle Chase (Grade 3), Naas 08/11 (Betfair SP 4.38) (feeder race: 66% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 43%, Dublin 40%))
• Kopek Des Bordes (W P Mullins): 2nd of 4, Barberstown Castle Chase (Grade 3), Naas 08/11 (Betfair SP 1.36) (feeder race: 66% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 43%, Dublin 40%))
• Westport Cove (W P Mullins): 3rd of 4, Barberstown Castle Chase (Grade 3), Naas 08/11 (Betfair SP 24.00) (feeder race: 66% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 43%, Dublin 40%))

Last week's feeder races at the festivals

How the runners from each of last week's feeder races got on when they went on to the festivals, every season since 2018 (every run, finished or not, £1 level stakes at Betfair SP, 2% commission).

• Barberstown Castle Chase (Grade 3) (Naas): 66% went on. Cheltenham: 1 won, 3 placed from 15 runs, A/E 0.69, -£8.32 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 1 won, 3 placed from 14 runs, A/E 0.83, -£4.17 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: Marine Nationale (Cheltenham 2025, Betfair SP 6.80), Gentleman De Mee (Dublin 2023, Betfair SP 10.01).
• Clonmel Oil Chase (Grade 2) (Clonmel): 42% went on. Cheltenham: 1 won, 1 placed from 11 runs, A/E 1.21, -£7.39 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 1 won, 2 placed from 7 runs, A/E 0.99, +£1.51 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: Il Etait Temps (Cheltenham 2026, Betfair SP 3.66), Solness (Dublin 2025, Betfair SP 8.66).
• BetMGM Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 2) (Limited Handicap) (Aintree): 41% went on. Cheltenham: 1 won, 1 placed from 18 runs, A/E 1.44, +£206.29 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 0 won, 0 placed from 2 runs, A/E 0.00, -£2.00 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: Martator (Cheltenham 2026, Betfair SP 228.85).
• Stan Mellor Memorial 'Chasing Excellence' Beginners' Chase (Warwick): 35% went on. Cheltenham: 1 won, 1 placed from 8 runs, A/E 0.96, -£3.66 at Betfair SP. Dublin: no runs. Festival winners: Edwardstone (Cheltenham 2022, Betfair SP 4.41).
• T.A. Morris Memorial Irish EBF Mares Chase (Listed) (Clonmel): 35% went on. Cheltenham: 1 won, 2 placed from 14 runs, A/E 0.81, +£2.76 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 0 won, 0 placed from 4 runs, A/E 0.00, -£4.00 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: Angels Dawn (Cheltenham 2023, Betfair SP 17.08).
• Michael Hickey Memorial Chase (Listed) (Wexford): 32% went on. Cheltenham: 0 won, 2 placed from 7 runs, A/E 0.00, -£7.00 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 1 won, 0 placed from 3 runs, A/E 15.20, +£23.48 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: Conflated (Dublin 2022, Betfair SP 27.00).

Last weekend on the clock

The big British meetings timed our way: every winner on the card against the feature race winner of the same type that day, over the same ground. First the last third of the shorter race, then the ground both races covered (less the shorter race's first furlong, a standing start). Same course, same day, same going, so the comparison is fair as far as the clock goes. It does not account for weight, and a quick finish after a slow early pace flatters.

Aintree, Friday 6 November

• Risky Obsession (Bet 10 To Get 40 BetMGM Novices' Hurdle, 2m1f) ran the last 6 furlongs 3.57 seconds slower than All In You in the Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap Hurdle (2m1f), and the last 16 furlongs 1.42 seconds slower.
• Secret Vino (Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Handicap Hurdle, 2m1f) ran the last 6 furlongs 0.91 seconds slower than All In You in the Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap Hurdle (2m1f), and the last 16 furlongs 3.94 seconds slower.

Quickest of anyone over the last 6 furlongs in the hurdles: All In You (1st in the Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap Hurdle).

BetMGM Handicap Chase: Here Comes Georgie finished 7th but was 5th quickest over the last 8 furlongs.

Sectionals were not in yet for Aintree on Saturday.

Build it yourself

Every table here is a breakdown in the System Builder: add Course, Month and Race Type, open the Breakdowns tab, and read A/E at Betfair SP beside the strike rate. On the day, Hot & Cold Trainers and Market Movers cover every yard and price at the meeting.

How we measured it

Every runner in a chase, hurdle or bumper at each course in the meeting's month, 2018 to last season, non-runners left out. A/E compares the winners with the sum of the horses' chances at Betfair Starting Price. Profit and loss is a £1 level stake at Betfair SP with 2% commission taken from winnings. "In profit" counts the years in which that split made a profit. The Dublin Racing Festival is every Leopardstown jumps fixture in February and the Cheltenham Festival every Cheltenham jumps fixture in March; a run counts towards the festivals of the same season.

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