Weekend jumps, 31 October: Down Royal, Wetherby, Ascot and Carlisle, what the price knew and the road to the festivals

Down Royal (Friday 30 to Saturday 31 October), Wetherby (Friday 30 to Saturday 31 October), Ascot (Saturday 31 October) and Carlisle (Sunday 1 November): this weekend's big jumps meetings. For each we went through every jumps runner at the course in the same month since 2018 and asked one question: did they win more often than their Betfair price said they would? That is A/E: actual winners divided by the winners the Betfair prices expected, where 1.00 means the market had them exactly right. Then we followed them on to the two festivals that matter, the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February and the Cheltenham Festival in March.

Down Royal, Friday 30 to Saturday 31 October

8 Novembers, 78 races, 709 runners. Horses back from a summer break (181+ days) have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and beat the price (A/E 1.26): 37 winners from 134 runners (27.6%), A/E 1.26, plus £49 at Betfair SP, in profit in 3 of 6 Novembers. The split furthest from its price is 4-year-olds in non-handicap hurdles: 6 from 67, A/E 1.62. Most winners: Gordon Elliott among the trainers (38 from 124, A/E 1.04) and Jack Kennedy among the riders (13 from 35, A/E 1.00).

Wetherby, Friday 30 to Saturday 31 October

8 Novembers, 161 races, 1,201 runners. Horses off for 22-60 days have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and the price knew it (A/E 1.05): 49 winners from 336 runners (14.6%), A/E 1.05, minus £73 at Betfair SP, in profit in 2 of 8 Novembers. The split furthest from its price is top weights in handicaps: 10 from 98, A/E 0.62. Most winners: Dan Skelton among the trainers (12 from 72, A/E 0.73) and Gavin Sheehan among the riders (12 from 38, A/E 1.66).

Ascot, Saturday 31 October

8 Novembers, 144 races, 1,116 runners. Horses back from a summer break (181+ days) have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and beat the price (A/E 1.24): 56 winners from 337 runners (16.6%), A/E 1.24, plus £135 at Betfair SP, in profit in 4 of 8 Novembers. The split furthest from its price is horses back from a summer break: 56 from 337, A/E 1.24. Most winners: Nicky Henderson among the trainers (18 from 70, A/E 0.95) and Nico de Boinville among the riders (15 from 52, A/E 1.03).

Carlisle, Sunday 1 November

8 Novembers, 113 races, 958 runners. Horses back from a summer break (181+ days) have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and beat the price (A/E 1.17): 53 winners from 357 runners (14.8%), A/E 1.17, plus £51 at Betfair SP, in profit in 4 of 8 Novembers. The split furthest from its price is top weights in handicaps: 5 from 68, A/E 0.48. Most winners: Dan Skelton among the trainers (9 from 30, A/E 1.24) and Brian Hughes among the riders (11 from 82, A/E 0.90).

The road to the festivals

Of every horse that ran at these meetings in this month since 2018, 9.7% ran at the Dublin Racing Festival or the Cheltenham Festival later that season (Dublin 74, Cheltenham 333). They won 18 festival races, an A/E of 0.77 at Betfair SP. Each horse counts once a season, by its last run here before the festivals.

• Wodhooh: 1st in the Ladbrokes Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2) at Ascot (2025), then won the Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 1.99).
• Meetmebythesea: 1st in the Boyle Sports Daily Money Back Meetings Novices' Limited Handicap Chase at Wetherby (2025), then won the Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2) at the Cheltenham Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 12.70).
• Martator: 2nd in the Castello Banfi Hurst Park Handicap Chase at Ascot (2025), then won the Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 228.85).
• Golden Ace: 4th in the Howden Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2) at Ascot (2024), then won the Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival (2025) (Betfair SP 44.83).
• Chianti Classico: 1st in the Royal Ascot Racing Club Novices' Limited Handicap Chase at Ascot (2023), then won the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 9.00).
• Better Days Ahead: did not finish in the Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Maiden Hurdle at Down Royal (2023), then won the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 9.20).
• Brucio: 3rd in the Tayto Group Maiden Hurdle at Down Royal (2023), then won the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle (Listed) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 29.14).
• Mighty Potter: 1st in the Tote Always SP Or Better At Down Royal Beginners Chase at Down Royal (2022), then won the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Grade 1) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2023) (Betfair SP 1.96).
• Final Orders: 1st in the Start Your Free Trial Now At racingtv.com Handicap Chase (0-125) at Down Royal (2022), then won the Paddy Power Cheltenham Fanzone Handicap Chase (0-150) (Grade 2) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2023) (Betfair SP 6.20).
• Envoi Allen: 1st in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase (Grade 1) at Down Royal (2022), then won the Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival (2023) (Betfair SP 8.67).

The 2026-27 festival dossier

Not every race leads to the festivals. The dossier takes only the feeder races: the British and Irish jumps races whose past runnings sent 30% or more of their runners on to the Dublin Racing Festival or Cheltenham that season. Handicaps and maidens almost never do, so they stay out. Every Monday the first three in each of last weekend's feeder races go in. In February and March we check which of them made Dublin and Cheltenham, and how they ran there. This week: 6 horses from Cheltenham, 27 in all.

• Jpr One (Joe Tizzard): 1st of 8, squareintheair.com Handicap Chase, Cheltenham 23/10 (Betfair SP 4.20) (feeder race: 30% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 29%, Dublin 5%))
• Traprain Law (Lucinda Russell): 2nd of 8, squareintheair.com Handicap Chase, Cheltenham 23/10 (Betfair SP 6.95) (feeder race: 30% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 29%, Dublin 5%))
• Soul Icon (Keiran Burke): 3rd of 8, squareintheair.com Handicap Chase, Cheltenham 23/10 (Betfair SP 7.00) (feeder race: 30% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 29%, Dublin 5%))
• Butch Cassidy (Henry De Bromhead): 1st of 6, William Hill Price Boosts 'Chasing Excellence' Novices' Chase, Cheltenham 24/10 (Betfair SP 3.10) (feeder race: 36% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 36%, Dublin 0%))
• Follow Your Luck (Patrick Neville): 2nd of 6, William Hill Price Boosts 'Chasing Excellence' Novices' Chase, Cheltenham 24/10 (Betfair SP 26.00) (feeder race: 36% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 36%, Dublin 0%))
• Derryhassen Paddy (Lucinda Russell): 3rd of 6, William Hill Price Boosts 'Chasing Excellence' Novices' Chase, Cheltenham 24/10 (Betfair SP 5.52) (feeder race: 36% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 36%, Dublin 0%))

Last week's feeder races at the festivals

How the runners from each of last week's feeder races got on when they went on to the festivals, every season since 2018 (every run, finished or not, £1 level stakes at Betfair SP, 2% commission).

• William Hill Price Boosts 'Chasing Excellence' Novices' Chase (Cheltenham): 36% went on. Cheltenham: 1 won, 2 placed from 15 runs, A/E 0.92, -£8.52 at Betfair SP. Dublin: no runs. Festival winners: Galvin (Cheltenham 2021, Betfair SP 6.59).
• squareintheair.com Handicap Chase (Cheltenham): 30% went on. Cheltenham: 0 won, 2 placed from 21 runs, A/E 0.00, -£21.00 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 1 won, 1 placed from 4 runs, A/E 3.90, +£1.51 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: Madara (Dublin 2024, Betfair SP 5.60).

Last weekend on the clock

The big British meetings timed our way: every winner on the card against the feature race winner of the same type that day, over the same ground. First the last third of the shorter race, then the ground both races covered (less the shorter race's first furlong, a standing start). Same course, same day, same going, so the comparison is fair as far as the clock goes. It does not account for weight, and a quick finish after a slow early pace flatters.

Cheltenham, Friday 23 October

• Bowensonfire (Catesby Estates 'Chasing Excellence' Novices' Chase, 2m) ran the last 5 furlongs 3.83 seconds quicker than Jpr One in the squareintheair.com Handicap Chase (2m), and the last 15 furlongs 3.81 seconds slower.
• Frontier Prince (William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Hurdle, 2m4f) ran the last 5 furlongs 0.41 seconds quicker than Kingofthefrontier in the Oddschecker Novices' Hurdle (2m), and the last 15 furlongs 2.10 seconds slower.
• Continuance (Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle, 2m) ran the last 5 furlongs 0.26 seconds quicker than Kingofthefrontier in the Oddschecker Novices' Hurdle (2m), and the last 15 furlongs 0.55 seconds slower.
• Cosmos d'Ainay (McCoy Contractors Novices' Hurdle, 2m4f) ran the last 5 furlongs 1.96 seconds slower than Kingofthefrontier in the Oddschecker Novices' Hurdle (2m), and the last 15 furlongs 2.72 seconds slower.

Quickest of anyone over the last 5 furlongs in the chases: Bowensonfire (1st in the Catesby Estates 'Chasing Excellence' Novices' Chase).

Quickest of anyone over the last 5 furlongs in the hurdles: East India Express (2nd in the William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Hurdle).

Build it yourself

Every table here is a breakdown in the System Builder: add Course, Month and Race Type, open the Breakdowns tab, and read A/E at Betfair SP beside the strike rate. On the day, Hot & Cold Trainers and Market Movers cover every yard and price at the meeting.

How we measured it

Every runner in a chase, hurdle or bumper at each course in the meeting's month, 2018 to last season, non-runners left out. A/E compares the winners with the sum of the horses' chances at Betfair Starting Price. Profit and loss is a £1 level stake at Betfair SP with 2% commission taken from winnings. "In profit" counts the years in which that split made a profit. The Dublin Racing Festival is every Leopardstown jumps fixture in February and the Cheltenham Festival every Cheltenham jumps fixture in March; a run counts towards the festivals of the same season.

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