Cheltenham (Friday 23 to Saturday 24 October) and Aintree (Sunday 25 October): this weekend's big jumps meetings. For each we went through every jumps runner at the course in the same month since 2018 and asked one question: did they win more often than their Betfair price said they would? That is A/E: actual winners divided by the winners the Betfair prices expected, where 1.00 means the market had them exactly right. Then we followed them on to the two festivals that matter, the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February and the Cheltenham Festival in March.

The short version

  • Cheltenham: the split furthest from its price is 4-year-olds in non-handicap hurdles, 8 winners from 75, A/E 0.80.
  • Aintree: the split furthest from its price is top weights in handicaps, 3 winners from 45, A/E 0.52.
  • 15.1% of the horses who ran at these meetings went on to a festival the same season; 14 of them won there. The latest: Supremely West, 3rd at Cheltenham in 2025, then won the Final Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 2026.
  • 9 horses join the 2026-27 festival dossier from last weekend at Punchestown and Limerick; 15 so far.

This weekend's jumps

Cheltenham, Friday 23 to Saturday 24 October

Cheltenham: what the price knew

8 Octobers, 112 races, 1,172 runners. Horses off for 8-21 days have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and beat the price (A/E 1.19): 30 winners from 250 runners (12.0%), A/E 1.19, minus £35 at Betfair SP, in profit in 3 of 8 Octobers. The split furthest from its price is 4-year-olds in non-handicap hurdles: 8 from 75, A/E 0.80. Most winners: Gordon Elliott among the trainers (9 from 54, A/E 1.14) and Sean Bowen among the riders (6 from 45, A/E 1.22).

Cheltenham in October, table 1

Cheltenham in October, table 2

Cheltenham in October, table 3

Cheltenham in October, table 4

Cheltenham in October, table 5

Cheltenham in October, table 6

Aintree, Sunday 25 October

Aintree: what the price knew

8 Octobers, 56 races, 519 runners. Horses off for 8-21 days have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and beat the price (A/E 1.34): 10 winners from 73 runners (13.7%), A/E 1.34, plus £6 at Betfair SP, in profit in 3 of 8 Octobers. The split furthest from its price is top weights in handicaps: 3 from 45, A/E 0.52. Most winners: Dan Skelton among the trainers (6 from 44, A/E 0.93) and Harry Skelton among the riders (6 from 37, A/E 0.99).

Aintree in October, table 1

Aintree in October, table 2

Aintree in October, table 3

Aintree in October, table 4

Aintree in October, table 5

Aintree in October, table 6

The road to the festivals

Who goes on to the festivals

Of every horse that ran at these meetings in this month since 2018, 15.1% ran at the Dublin Racing Festival or the Cheltenham Festival later that season (Dublin 18, Cheltenham 246). They won 14 festival races, an A/E of 1.23 at Betfair SP. Each horse counts once a season, by its last run here before the festivals.

Festival winners who ran here first

  • Supremely West: 3rd in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (2025), then won the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 5.25).
  • Bowensonfire: 3rd in the William Hill Each Way Extra Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (2025), then won the Padel At Leopardstown Golf Launching Spring 2026 Handicap Hurdle (0-150) (Listed) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 13.00).
  • Backmersackme: 2nd in the William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (2025), then won the O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade 3) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 23.95).
  • Jazzy Matty: 2nd in the William Hill Top Price Guarantee Novices' Chase at Cheltenham (2024), then won the Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2025) (Betfair SP 10.13).
  • Madara: did not finish in the Epic Value At William Hill Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (2023), then won the Ryanair Handicap Chase (0-150) (Listed) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 5.60).
  • The Real Whacker: 11th in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (2022), then won the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival (2023) (Betfair SP 11.43).
  • Seddon: 1st in the Abu Dhabi Digital Exchange Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (2022), then won the Magners Plate Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2023) (Betfair SP 24.00).
  • Corach Rambler: 1st in the Jewson St Helens Novices' Limited Handicap Chase at Aintree (2021), then won the Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) at the Cheltenham Festival (2022) (Betfair SP 13.68).
  • Coole Cody: 2nd in the Abu Dhabi Digital Exchange Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (2021), then won the Craft Irish Whiskey Co. Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) at the Cheltenham Festival (2022) (Betfair SP 34.86).
  • Galvin: 1st in the Matchbook Better Way To Bet Novices' Chase at Cheltenham (2020), then won the Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Chase (Grade 2) at the Cheltenham Festival (2021) (Betfair SP 6.59).

The 2026-27 festival dossier

The festival dossier

Not every race leads to the festivals. The dossier takes only the feeder races: the British and Irish jumps races whose past runnings sent 30% or more of their runners on to the Dublin Racing Festival or Cheltenham that season. Handicaps and maidens almost never do, so they stay out. Every Monday the first three in each of last weekend's feeder races go in. In February and March we check which of them made Dublin and Cheltenham, and how they ran there. This week: 9 horses from Punchestown and Limerick, 15 in all.

  • Chanceawetmorning (Gordon Elliott): 1st of 4, Matchbook Betting Exchange Novice Chase (Grade 3), Punchestown 14/10 (Betfair SP 8.51) (feeder race: 44% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 31%, Dublin 29%))
  • Sir Allen (Andrew Slattery): 2nd of 4, Matchbook Betting Exchange Novice Chase (Grade 3), Punchestown 14/10 (Betfair SP 9.40) (feeder race: 44% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 31%, Dublin 29%))
  • Vitorio Piel (Emmet Mullins): 3rd of 4, Matchbook Betting Exchange Novice Chase (Grade 3), Punchestown 14/10 (Betfair SP 6.00) (feeder race: 44% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 31%, Dublin 29%))
  • Gorgeous Tom (Henry De Bromhead): 1st of 4, Matchbook Betting Exchange Chase (Grade 3), Punchestown 14/10 (Betfair SP 1.76) (feeder race: 53% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 36%, Dublin 28%))
  • Croke Park (Gordon Elliott): 2nd of 4, Matchbook Betting Exchange Chase (Grade 3), Punchestown 14/10 (Betfair SP 4.94) (feeder race: 53% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 36%, Dublin 28%))
  • Apple's Of Bresil (B Connell): 3rd of 4, Matchbook Betting Exchange Chase (Grade 3), Punchestown 14/10 (Betfair SP 4.72) (feeder race: 53% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 36%, Dublin 28%))
  • Carried With Love (Jonathan Sweeney): 1st of 6, Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cailin Alainn Mares Hurdle (Listed), Limerick 17/10 (Betfair SP 3.34) (feeder race: 30% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 21%, Dublin 11%))
  • Millstream Lady (E McNamara): 2nd of 6, Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cailin Alainn Mares Hurdle (Listed), Limerick 17/10 (Betfair SP 5.17) (feeder race: 30% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 21%, Dublin 11%))
  • World Of Fortunes (James Kenny): 3rd of 6, Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cailin Alainn Mares Hurdle (Listed), Limerick 17/10 (Betfair SP 3.19) (feeder race: 30% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 21%, Dublin 11%))

Last week's feeder races at the festivals

How the runners from each of last week's feeder races got on when they went on to the festivals, every season since 2018 (every run, finished or not, £1 level stakes at Betfair SP, 2% commission).

  • Matchbook Betting Exchange Chase (Grade 3) (Punchestown): 53% went on. Cheltenham: 1 won, 3 placed from 13 runs, A/E 0.86, -£7.20 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 0 won, 2 placed from 10 runs, A/E 0.00, -£10.00 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: Heart Wood (Cheltenham 2026, Betfair SP 5.90).
  • Matchbook Betting Exchange Novice Chase (Grade 3) (Punchestown): 44% went on. Cheltenham: 0 won, 1 placed from 14 runs, A/E 0.00, -£14.00 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 1 won, 3 placed from 13 runs, A/E 1.33, +£5.64 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: A Wave Of The Sea (Dublin 2021, Betfair SP 19.00).
  • BOYLE Sports JT McNamara Munster National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Limerick): 32% went on. Cheltenham: 0 won, 2 placed from 20 runs, A/E 0.00, -£20.00 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 1 won, 1 placed from 22 runs, A/E 1.23, -£16.37 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: A Wave Of The Sea (Dublin 2022, Betfair SP 5.72).
  • Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cailin Alainn Mares Hurdle (Listed) (Limerick): 30% went on. Cheltenham: 0 won, 5 placed from 11 runs, A/E 0.00, -£11.00 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 1 won, 0 placed from 6 runs, A/E 7.17, +£16.80 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: Black Tears (Dublin 2020, Betfair SP 23.25).

Build it yourself

Build this in the System Builder

Every table here is a breakdown in the System Builder: add Course, Month and Race Type, open the Breakdowns tab, and read A/E at Betfair SP beside the strike rate. On the day, Hot & Cold Trainers and Market Movers cover every yard and price at the meeting.

How we measured it

Every runner in a chase, hurdle or bumper at each course in the meeting's month, 2018 to last season, non-runners left out. A/E compares the winners with the sum of the horses' chances at Betfair Starting Price. Profit and loss is a £1 level stake at Betfair SP with 2% commission taken from winnings. "In profit" counts the years in which that split made a profit. The Dublin Racing Festival is every Leopardstown jumps fixture in February and the Cheltenham Festival every Cheltenham jumps fixture in March; a run counts towards the festivals of the same season.

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