Weekend jumps, 10 October: Chepstow, what the price knew and the road to the festivals

Chepstow (Friday 9 to Sunday 11 October): this weekend's big jumps meeting. For each we went through every jumps runner at the course in the same month since 2018 and asked one question: did they win more often than their Betfair price said they would? That is A/E: actual winners divided by the winners the Betfair prices expected, where 1.00 means the market had them exactly right. Then we followed them on to the two festivals that matter, the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February and the Cheltenham Festival in March.

Chepstow, Friday 9 to Sunday 11 October

8 Octobers, 185 races, 1,774 runners. Horses back from a summer break (181+ days) have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and beat the price (A/E 1.12): 83 winners from 646 runners (12.8%), A/E 1.12, minus £55 at Betfair SP, in profit in 2 of 8 Octobers. The split furthest from its price is 4-year-olds in non-handicap hurdles: 3 from 114, A/E 0.43. Most winners: Paul Nicholls among the trainers (32 from 112, A/E 1.08) and Harry Cobden among the riders (30 from 112, A/E 1.02).

The road to the festivals

Of every horse that ran at Chepstow in this month since 2018, 7.3% ran at the Dublin Racing Festival or the Cheltenham Festival later that season (Dublin 0, Cheltenham 129). They won 9 festival races, an A/E of 1.56 at Betfair SP. Each horse counts once a season, by its last run here before the festivals.

• Wilful: 3rd in the DragonBet 'Welsh Champion' Hurdle (Limited Handicap) at Chepstow (2025), then won the William Hill County Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 18.07).
• Ask Brewster: 1st in the DragonBet / Native River Handicap Chase at Chepstow (2025), then won the Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 22.00).
• The New Lion: 1st in the ColourFence Newport Long Life Garden Railings Maiden Hurdle at Chepstow (2024), then won the Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival (2025) (Betfair SP 4.86).
• Haiti Couleurs: 2nd in the Carl Pyne 60th Birthday Novices' Limited Handicap Chase at Chepstow (2024), then won the Princess Royal National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2025) (Betfair SP 5.00).
• Chianti Classico: 1st in the Tom Malone Bloodstock Novices' Limited Handicap Chase at Chepstow (2023), then won the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 9.00).
• Unexpected Party: 1st in the Happy Birthday Sue Novices' Chase (Listed) at Chepstow (2023), then won the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 15.89).
• Imperial Aura: 3rd in the Cotswold Stone Supplies Ltd Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) at Chepstow (2019), then won the Northern Trust Company Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed) at the Cheltenham Festival (2020) (Betfair SP 5.55).
• Indefatigable: 5th in the Cotswold Stone Supplies Ltd Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) at Chepstow (2019), then won the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (2020) (Betfair SP 39.67).
• Lisnagar Oscar: 2nd in the Dunraven Windows Novices' Chase at Chepstow (2019), then won the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival (2020) (Betfair SP 120.00).

The 2026-27 festival dossier

Every Monday the dossier adds last weekend's winners at the big jumps meetings, the 2nd and 3rd in Class 1 races, the quickest finish of the day and any horse that was best on the clock but beaten. In February and March we check which of them made Dublin and Cheltenham, and how they ran there. This week: 26 horses from Gowran Park, 26 in all.

• Ivatt (Gordon Elliott): 1st of 13, Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle, Gowran Park 02/10 (Betfair SP 4.88)
• The Captain's Word (Henry De Bromhead): 1st of 20, Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Maiden Hurdle, Gowran Park 02/10 (Betfair SP 2.15)
• Gino Bella (Patrick T Foley): 1st of 6, Irish Stallion Farms EBF Pat Walsh Memorial Mares Hurdle, Gowran Park 02/10 (Betfair SP 4.49)
• Gillane (Gavin Cromwell): 1st of 17, 1xBet.ie Supports Safer Gambling Maiden Hurdle, Gowran Park 02/10 (Betfair SP 4.70)
• At The Wings (Norman Lee): 1st of 20, RTV Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1), Gowran Park 02/10 (Betfair SP 6.60)
• The Ducks Walk (N Dooly): 1st of 13, RTV Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2), Gowran Park 02/10 (Betfair SP 12.84)
• Nelson Muntz (David Harry Kelly): 1st of 14, Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle (0-120), Gowran Park 02/10 (Betfair SP 6.27)
• Sarahs Lawn (Declan Queally): 1st of 10, Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mucklemeg Mares NH Flat Race (Listed), Gowran Park 02/10 (Betfair SP 3.72)
• Long'way (W P Mullins): 2nd of 10, Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mucklemeg Mares NH Flat Race (Listed), Gowran Park 02/10 (Betfair SP 5.70) (2nd in a Class 1)
• Missouri Snow (Nigel Slevin): 3rd of 10, Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mucklemeg Mares NH Flat Race (Listed), Gowran Park 02/10 (Betfair SP 100.00) (3rd in a Class 1)
• El Cairos (Gordon Elliott): 1st of 5, Gowran Park Hurdle (Listed), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 2.68)
• Gaucher (W P Mullins): 2nd of 5, Gowran Park Hurdle (Listed), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 2.18) (2nd in a Class 1)
• Samui (Gordon Elliott): 3rd of 5, Gowran Park Hurdle (Listed), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 67.33) (3rd in a Class 1)
• Witches Familiar (W P Mullins): 1st of 6, BOYLE Sports Novice Hurdle (Grade 3), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 1.45)
• Switch From Diesel (Ross O'Sullivan): 2nd of 6, BOYLE Sports Novice Hurdle (Grade 3), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 6.60) (2nd in a Class 1)
• Minella Hollow (John J Nallen): 3rd of 6, BOYLE Sports Novice Hurdle (Grade 3), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 20.23) (3rd in a Class 1)
• Smallcraftwarning (John Patrick Ryan): 1st of 11, Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-130), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 5.40)
• Fleur In The Park (Andrew Slattery): 1st of 4, PWC Danoli Chase (Grade 2), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 2.37)
• Blood Destiny (W P Mullins): 2nd of 4, PWC Danoli Chase (Grade 2), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 2.42) (2nd in a Class 1)
• Emily Love (Gordon Elliott): 3rd of 4, PWC Danoli Chase (Grade 2), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 48.00) (3rd in a Class 1)
• Frankie John (Denis Gerard Hogan): 1st of 5, Like A Butterfly Novice Chase (Grade 3), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 3.01)
• Vicar Street (W P Mullins): 2nd of 5, Like A Butterfly Novice Chase (Grade 3), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 2.74) (2nd in a Class 1)
• Bowensonfire (Gordon Elliott): 3rd of 5, Like A Butterfly Novice Chase (Grade 3), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 11.00) (3rd in a Class 1)
• Fou De Toi (W P Mullins): 1st of 6, Irish Stallion Farms EBF Captain Christy Rated Novice Chase, Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 2.26)
• Sir Allen (Andrew Slattery): 1st of 8, SIS Supporting Irish Racing Beginners Chase, Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 30.00)
• Luimneach (Conor O'Dwyer): 1st of 6, Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Handicap Chase (0-130), Gowran Park 03/10 (Betfair SP 5.13)

Build it yourself

Every table here is a breakdown in the System Builder: add Course, Month and Race Type, open the Breakdowns tab, and read A/E at Betfair SP beside the strike rate. On the day, Hot & Cold Trainers and Market Movers cover every yard and price at the meeting.

How we measured it

Every runner in a chase, hurdle or bumper at each course in the meeting's month, 2018 to last season, non-runners left out. A/E compares the winners with the sum of the horses' chances at Betfair Starting Price. Profit and loss is a £1 level stake at Betfair SP with 2% commission taken from winnings. "In profit" counts the years in which that split made a profit. The Dublin Racing Festival is every Leopardstown jumps fixture in February and the Cheltenham Festival every Cheltenham jumps fixture in March; a run counts towards the festivals of the same season. A split above par is a question to ask, not a bet to strike.

18+ | BeGambleAware.org