Which trainers do best with hurdlers on their first run over fences?

Which trainers do best with hurdlers on their first run over fences? It's one of the questions members ask us most, and it takes one system and one table to answer.

The system

In the System Builder, add three rules: Race Type is Chase, Chase Runs (career) is 0, and Hurdle Runs (career) is at least 1. That is every hurdler having its first go over fences since the start of 2023, 5,513 runs in all. As a whole group they are a losing bet at Betfair SP (about 13% down), so the question is which yards buck that.

The Trainer table

Run it, open Breakdowns, and find the Trainer table on the Connections tab: one line for each yard. Most yards only have a handful of chase debutants, so type 40 into the Runs box of the filter bar above the tables. Every line left then has a fair sample behind it.

Sort by win rate and Nigel Twiston-Davies, Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins are at the top, their chase debutants winning about one time in four.

Profit, and why A/E matters

Now sort by profit at Betfair SP. The top line looks like a gold mine until you read A/E, actual winners against the number the Betfair Starting Price expected, where 1.00 means the market had them exactly right. It is under one. That profit is a single winner at over 200/1, and without it the yard is behind. A big profit on a low A/E is usually one horse, not a habit.

The lines worth a closer look are the ones where win rate, profit and A/E all point the same way. Ben Pauling is one: 71 chase debutants, almost one in four winning, in profit at Betfair SP and an A/E above one.

Take a yard into a system

Click the + rule button beside his name and he becomes a rule. Save the system, and his next chase debutant shows up in your Today's Qualifiers. Seventy-odd runs is still a small sample, so treat it as a yard to watch, not a sure thing.

The same Trainer table works for any first: First Run for New Trainer, or First Run After Wind Surgery. Change the rules and run it again.

The System Builder is included with RaceMetrics Pro and Proform Premium. See RaceMetrics Pro.