A member asked us how to back-test the lone likely leader using pre-race data only. In the System Builder, two fields do most of the work, and the video builds the system and reads what it says.
Pace Rating
Pace Rating looks at the horse's last three runs: 4 points each time it led, 2 when it raced prominently, and nothing when it was held up. So 12 means it led all three times, and 0 means it was held up every time (or has no previous runs).
Pace Rating: % of Race Total
A Pace Rating of 8 means little if three rivals have 8 as well. Pace Rating: % of Race Total answers that: it is the horse's share of all the Pace Ratings in the race. It is worked out from the runners on the card, so it is there before the off, and it has a green dot in Add Rule: it works for today's qualifiers too.
The system
Four rules: Pace Rating 8 or more, 30% or more of the race total, Race Type turf and all-weather (the flat), and handicaps only. From January 2023, about one in six of these horses won, which is a lot for a handicap.
Now look at A/E at the Betfair starting price: actual winners over the winners those prices expected. It is right on 1.00. The market already knows who is likely to be in front.
The breakdowns
Turf and all-weather tell the same story: plenty of winners, and A/E near 1.00. By field size, most of these horses run in small fields, where holding 30% of the pace is easy, and that is where the strike rate is highest. In big fields they are rare, and the samples are too small to trust.
A starting point, not an edge
Knowing the likely leader tells you who wins more often, not who is the wrong price. Treat it as a starting point: add your own angle on top, and look for A/E to move clear of 1.00 before you trust it. Every rule here is known before the off, so the Qualifiers tab lists the day's runners that fit.
The System Builder is included with Proform Premium and RaceMetrics Pro. See the plans.
