In brief
- Caragio heads a wide-open market at 4.33 (a 19.8% implied chance), but the RaceMetrics Model Price (RMP) rates him only sixth, at 13.19, and he is 1 from 10 on all-weather surfaces.
- No runner is a confirmed front-runner, and over this 7f 15y trip leaders carry an impact value of 1.78 (1.0 is average). Kiani King has the highest pace rating in the field, at 8.
- Selection: Justice Court, RMP's top-rated runner at 6.04 against a morning 9.0, who won over 7f at Wolverhampton 11 days ago.
Caragio's soft mark meets a track that rewards pace, and Justice Court fits it better
This is a 12-runner Class 5 handicap for horses rated up to 75, and the market cannot settle on a winner. Caragio is favourite at 4.33, backed from 5.50. That price gives him a 19.8% chance on the betting market's implied chance (prices turned into percentages with the bookmakers' margin removed). Nobody else reaches 15%.
The question is whether the favourite deserves that status on a track that rewards racing handily.
The case for and against the favourite
The case for Caragio is his mark. He runs off an official rating (OR) of 69, which is 15lb below the 84 he last won a handicap off. His speed-form rates strong: his last three in-the-frame figures average 5 above the class par of 63 (the speed figure a typical winner at this level runs to).
The case against him is longer:
- He is 1 from 10 in the all-weather going group and has beaten 42% of rivals on it (50 is average). That is a below-par return from a fair sample.
- He has had one run at Southwell.
- He has been held up in 73% of his recent runs, and his last win was 158 days ago.
- His trainer is 1 from 16 in the past 14 days, and his jockey is 1 from 38.
RMP makes him 13.19, a 7.6% chance, which is the widest disagreement with the market in the race. To be fair to him, RMP had him 12th at 26.43 before his Doncaster third last time. In that race he briefly led before drifting left and was beaten 1.25 lengths.
Where the race will be run
The pace map shows no confirmed leader, four prominent runners and eight that are usually held up, so a moderate gallop is expected. That matters here, because leading at this course and distance carries an impact value of 1.78.
Kiani King has the highest pre-race pace rating in the field, at 8. Justice Court is next on 4, and every other runner is rated 2 or has no rating.
The draw is less decisive. Low stalls have produced 290 winners from 2,654 runs (10.9%), and high stalls 158 from 1,730 (9.1%).
The selection
Justice Court is RMP's top-rated runner at 6.04, a 16.6% chance. The market has him at 9.0 this morning (8.9%), having drifted from 6.0. That gap of 7.7 points is an opinion to test, not a conclusion, but the rest of his profile supports it.
He won a Class 5 handicap over 7f at Wolverhampton 11 days ago, off 71. According to the race comment, he was held up in rear, switched right over a furlong out and ran on well to lead close home. The speed figure of 64 was a career best and just clears today's par. RMP had him third at 7.14 before that race, so the win did not come out of nowhere. His only poor run in four starts came over a mile at Lingfield, where he raced wide and weakened.
His connections are busy. Jamie Osborne is 3 from 13 in the past 14 days. William Carver is 4 from 10 over the same period. Form Temperature, which compares a rider's last fortnight with his own five-year strike rate, puts Carver in its hot band: a fortnight this extreme comes round about one time in 160. That makes it a statistically unusual fortnight, nothing more. Over 297 runs together, trainer and jockey have actual against expected wins of 1.28 (above 1.0 means more winners than the market expected).
The case against him is real:
- He is untried at Southwell and has had only four career runs.
- He is up 1lb to 72, a mark he has not raced off before.
- Only one of his last four figures clears par.
- His win came from the back, on a track where leaders have the edge.
He has raced prominently in half his runs, and with no confirmed leader in the field, William Carver should have options.
The dangers
Kiani King is the one who could have the race run to suit him. He won over a mile here on 31 August, racing prominently, and led when third over course and trip in July. He sits in the draw-and-pace combination that has done best at this course and distance. His trainer, Hughie Morrison, is 3 from 12 in 14 days.
His last run is the worry. He was keen and tailed off on good to soft ground at Windsor, when RMP had made him favourite at 6.98. He is also 4lb above his winning mark. RMP now has him at 7.62, almost exactly where the market is. His Future Form score of 71.9, which measures how the horses he met last time have run since, is the best in the race, but it rests on two races.
Packetofbiscuits is the only course-and-distance winner in the field, with 2 wins from 6 runs. He was beaten 0.1 lengths at 28/1 at Yarmouth last time, leading inside the final furlong. RMP had him 14th at 29.4 beforehand, so that run beat its expectations. Collateral form, which compares horses through the rivals they have both met, has him level with Caragio across nine shared rivals.
Against that, his yard is 0 from 7 in 14 days, and RMP prices him at 14.65 against the market's 6.5. His jockey, Callum Hutchinson, is also in the hot band, with 7 wins from 33 rides.
The rest
Be Frank is 6.0 in the market but has gone 496 days without a win, and his rider is 2 from 44 in a fortnight. Newsreader is on a career-low mark with the best speed-form in the field, but has run 13 times since his last win. Bundok, stablemate of Kiani King, is still a maiden after six runs, though RMP rates her higher than the market does. Forest Caper is 0 from 12 on the all-weather. The Julie Camacho pair come from a yard that is 0 from 26 in 14 days, and Beauzon has finished last in each of his last two runs.
Verdict: Justice Court, a progressive 7f winner who should have options in a race with no confirmed leader, can beat Kiani King and Packetofbiscuits; Caragio looks short for a held-up horse who is 1 from 10 on the all-weather.
