Twenty-one jockeys rode 44 or more jumps winners in Britain and Ireland last season, and between them they rode more than a third of every jumps winner run. We put every one of their 10,173 rides through the same test: what did the Betfair price expect, and what did the rider deliver?

The short version

  • Thirteen of the 21 beat the price, three finished level with it and five fell short. As a group they rode 1,833 winners against the 1,772 their Betfair prices expected: an A/E of 1.03. A/E is actual winners divided by the winners the prices said should win; 1.00 means the market had them exactly right.
  • Winning a lot is not the same as beating the price. Paul Townend had the best strike rate of the lot, 30.8%, and still came in under par at 0.92: the horses were so short that winning almost a third of the time was less than the market expected.
  • The ground and the obstacles split riders sharply. James Bowen ran at 1.18 on better ground and 0.72 on soft or heavy. Ben Jones ran at 1.51 over fences and 0.83 over hurdles.
  • One horse can make a season. Brendan Powell finished £338 up at Betfair SP; £450 of that was one 459/1 winner. Without it, the season was £112 down. Profit hangs on single results; A/E is steadier.

The league table

Sorted by winners, with each rider's strike rate, A/E and the profit or loss from a £1 bet on every ride at Betfair Starting Price, after 2% commission. Mark Walsh and J J Slevin tied for 20th on 44 winners, so both are in.

League table of the 21 leading jumps jockeys of 2025/26 by winners, with rides, strike rate, A/E at Betfair SP and profit or loss

Sean Bowen rode 242 winners from 1,025 rides, the most by a distance, and still beat the price at 1.04. Harry Skelton's 24% strike rate came in bang on par. At the other end, Paul Townend's 0.92 is the clearest case of a rider the market already rates very highly: those horses went off at prices that expected a winner one ride in three.

Who beat the price

Bar chart of A/E at Betfair SP for the 21 jockeys, from T Durrell at 1.30 to Sam Twiston-Davies at 0.88

T Durrell tops it at 1.30 from 291 rides, including the 109/1 Grade 1 winner Mirabad in the Maghull Novices' Chase at Aintree. Donagh Meyler (1.18) and Tom Bellamy (1.15) come next. A season is a small sample, though: a figure like 1.30 is a reason to look closer, not proof of an edge.

Same rider, different ground

Here the rides are split by the official going on the day: Good to Soft or faster against Soft or Heavy. Swing is the soft figure minus the better-ground one.

Each jockey's A/E on better ground against soft or heavy ground, sorted by the swing between them

Ben Jones and Harry Cobden both found more when it turned soft: Jones from 1.02 to 1.32, Cobden from 0.96 to 1.25. James Bowen, Gavin Sheehan and Tom Bellamy went the other way, each well above par on better ground and well below it on soft or heavy. Several of the soft-ground samples are only 80 to 150 rides, so read these as leads.

Fences or hurdles?

Each jockey's A/E over fences against over hurdles, sorted by the swing between them

Ben Jones rode 58 chase winners from 182 rides at 1.51, one of the best figures here, but ran at 0.83 over hurdles. Donagh Meyler (1.65 over fences) and T Durrell (1.81) show the same shape. Sean Quinlan and J J Slevin are the mirror image: below 0.80 over fences, 1.20 and 1.29 over hurdles. Bumpers are left out of this split.

Where the price was right

All 21 jockeys' rides grouped by Betfair price: shorter than 2/1, 2/1 to 5/1, 5/1 to 10/1, and 10/1 and bigger

Put all 21 together and group the rides by price, and the market comes out very well. Of the 1,455 rides that went off shorter than 2/1, 49.3% won; the prices said 49.0%. The 10/1-and-bigger rides show a 7.6% return, which looks like an angle until you take out one result. Without it, that band returns minus 3.9%.

One horse can make a season

Each jockey's season profit or loss at Betfair SP, their biggest winner, and the profit or loss without it

That result was Fight My Fire, who won a maiden hurdle at Fontwell on 26 October 2025 at 459/1 on Betfair. It turned Brendan Powell's season from £112 down into £338 up. Darragh O'Keeffe, T Durrell, J J Slevin and Brian Hughes all stay in profit without their biggest winner, but by far less. When you compare riders, read A/E first and profit last.

Build these tables yourself

Every table here comes from the same data our members use in the System Builder. Set the dates, add Race Type (Chase, Hurdle, NHF), then on the Grid tab put Jockey down the side and Going across the top, and pick A/E at Betfair SP. Swap Going for Race Type and you have the fences and hurdles table. It works for any season back to 2018, any course and any class.

A rider above par last season is a question to ask this season, not a bet to strike. The jumps season is under way: who would you follow?

How we measured it

Every ride in a chase, hurdle or National Hunt flat race in Britain and Ireland between 27 April 2025 and 25 April 2026, non-runners left out. The 21 riders are everyone with 44 or more winners. A/E compares each rider's winners with the sum of their horses' chances at Betfair Starting Price. Profit and loss is a £1 level stake on every ride at Betfair SP, with 2% commission taken from winnings. Ground uses the official going on the day.

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