It is the question every punter asks over a handicap, out loud, usually while scrolling: has this horse ever actually won off a mark this high?

Over the last fortnight we were asked it about eight different ways — in Ask RaceMetrics, in the System Builder assistant, and once through the contact form by a member asking us to build it. We did not need to. It has been in the System Builder for months. Nobody could find it, which is our problem rather than theirs, so here is where it lives.

Two filters, one search

Open Add Rule in the System Builder and type winning into the search box. Two filters come back:

  • Highest Winning Handicap OR — the raw mark. The best Official Rating this horse has ever won off.
  • Lbs Below Highest Winning OR — the gap between that mark and the one it carries today.

The second is the one most people are reaching for. Set it to 5 or more and you have said something very plain: show me every horse racing at least five pounds below a mark it has already won from. Put a minus in front — -5 or less — and you get the mirror image, the horses that need a career best off today's mark.

The bit worth knowing: highest, not most recent

This is the detail that makes the filter worth a video. It measures against the highest mark the horse has ever won off — not the most recent one.

Four times in five that distinction changes nothing. Of the runners in handicaps who arrive with a previous handicap win to their name, 82% have a highest winning mark that is also their most recent one. Same number, no argument.

The fifth horse is the one you were looking for. Take Some Nightmare, who ran in a class six handicap at Chepstow on the day we filmed this. He runs off 49. His most recent win came off 55, at the same track last August — so against his last winning mark he is six pounds well in, which is mildly interesting. But his highest winning mark is 74, from Ffos Las in September 2022. Measured properly, he is 25 pounds below a mark he has won from.

A filter built on the last win would have shrugged at him. That is the whole point of the distinction.

What it counts, and what it does not

Two scoping rules, both deliberate:

  • Handicap wins only. A maiden or conditions win does not set the mark, because the mark is a handicapping idea.
  • Today's race type only. Turf, All-Weather, Chase, Hurdle and National Hunt Flat are kept separate — so a turf handicap win will not count towards an All-Weather race today, and a hurdle win does not travel to the Flat.

Because the mark comes from handicap wins, it is worth pairing the rule with Handicap = Yes so the runs you are testing are handicaps too. Horses with no prior handicap win at today's race type simply drop out of the sample.

An honest note on the numbers

On its own, this is not an edge. Five pounds or more below the highest winning mark, in handicaps, since 2023: 35,370 runners, a 9.5% strike rate, impact value 0.95, and A/E of exactly 1.00 at Betfair SP. Market par. The prices already know that a horse has come down the weights.

That is not an argument against the filter — it is an argument about how to use it. A big gap is a question, not an answer: it can mean a horse ahead of the handicapper, or simply one that is past its best and sliding. Use it as a condition inside rules you already trust, and let the breakdowns tell you which kinds of horse the drop actually helps.

Where to find it

System Builder, Add Rule, search winning. Then hit Qualifiers and it will list every runner in the country that fits, before the off.

Lbs Below Highest Winning OR is available now to Proform Premium and RaceMetrics Pro members.